Marketing Publicidad online, radio, TV y diarios: las inversiones se redefinen en medio de fuertes cambios en la industria

 Los ingresos de este sector se mantienen estancados en términos reales. Es decir, apenas acompañan a la inflación. La compra de espacios creció, lo que marca una caída de las tarifas. Los formatos digitales crecen a expensas de otros rubros ¿Cómo está el mercado hoy y qué se espera a futuro?

Si el Gobierno busca áreas de la economía para hallar “brotes verdes” y así transmitir optimismo, una de las que debería evitar es el mercado publicitario.

Golpeado por varios frentes, retracción del consumo, baja inversión de los anunciantes y abruptos cambios tecnológicos que afectan a los medios de comunicación, esta industria permanece estancada desde hace ya varios años.

El 2017 no será la excepción, pues volverá a cerrar sin crecimiento en términos reales, con ingresos que apenas acompañan a la inflación.

Las estadísticas de la Cámara Argentina de Agencias de Medios (CAAM) dan cuenta de un mercado que mueve $28.000 millones anuales y en alza.

Sin embargo, estos datos deben ser tomados con cuidado, porque están basados en cifras brutas, extraídas del tarifario, que no toman en cuenta los grandes descuentos que ofrecen los medios.

Lo cierto es que el rubro publicitario está en crisis, y esto lo sufren de manera directa los medios de comunicación, también “cascoteados” por su karma propio, como lo es el advenimiento digital.

Si el análisis se centra en los volúmenes físicos de inversión (total de minutos emitidos o centímetros de espacio en medios gráficos), el acumulado del período enero-septiembre da positivo: suba del 5{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831}.

En otros momentos, un incremento de ese tipo hubiese sido motivo de festejo. Hoy día no es así.

Ocurre que una mayor compra de espacios pero, a la vez, con ingresos económicos estancados en términos reales sólo puede significar una cosa: que buena parte de los medios no pudo incrementar sus tarifas en la misma medida que la inflación.

En otras palabras, muchos tuvieron que vender más volumen pero a tarifas más bajas, debiéndose resignar a enfrentar una nueva realidad.

Lejos del promedio mundial
Al menos, queda como consuelo un indicador positivo: el aumento del total de espacios comercializados rompió la tendencia decreciente de los últimos años.

En 2016 la cantidad de centímetros en gráfica y los segundos en televisión y radio había caído 14{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} respecto a 2015, según la Cámara Argentina de Anunciantes (CAA).

En el rubro diarios y revistas, los analistas interpretan que el descenso no se debió tanto a la situación económica, sino al traumático cambio que el sector está experimentando a nivel mundial por la migración masiva de lectores a los medios online.

De hecho, el comportamiento de la inversión publicitaria es totalmente dispar entre diarios, radios, televisión abierta y por cable, lo que hace que resulte difícil hacer referencia a cifras promedios.

En cualquier caso, tanto directivos de agencias de publicidad como de importantes medios, señalan que la recuperación de este año es muy exigua frente a la magnitud del descenso de períodos anteriores.

“Nadie sabe exactamente cuánto mueve el mercado publicitario. Hay una empresa que hace un relevamiento, pero la tarifa publicada no tiene nada que ver con la realidad”, admitió Philip Pérez, presidente de la CAA, en alusión a la diferencia entre los valores nominales y los que realmente se cobran con descuentos.

Ante ello, los analistas prefieren seguir otros indicadores, como el aporte de la publicidad al PBI. Bajo esta referencia, se ratifica el estancamiento: 0,3{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} del producto bruto interno, guarismo que se mantiene desde hace años y que se ubica muy por debajo del promedio global.

“En el mundo, la publicidad representa, en promedio, el 1{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} del PBI. En la Argentina, hace tiempo que no puede subir más allá del 0,3{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831}”, sentenció Pablo Iesulauro, presidente de la CAAM.

Si hay que poner una fecha para el punto de inflexión, este ejecutivo la ubica en la crisis económica de 2001/02. Hasta ese momento, el mercado crecía de manera sostenida y la inversión rondaba el 1{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831}, en línea con el promedio mundial.

En lo que sí hay coincidencia general es en que, año tras año, los números son más altos, pero sólo por el factor inflación.

“La inversión publicitaria crece porque las tarifas se ajustan por inflación, no sabemos cuánto repunta en términos reales. Para este 2017, se estima una pequeña mejora gracias a la incipiente reactivación de la economía”, expresó Germán Yunes, presidente de la Asociación Argentina de Publicidad (AAP).

En los mismos términos se pronunció Horacio Gennari, presidente de Business Bureau quien -además de coincidir con que la inversión crece a un ritmo de 20 a 25{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} anual, arrastrada por el costo de vida-, apuntó dos aspectos clave: suba sostenida de la publicidad digital y “crisis terminal” en términos de reformulación de la industria.

En su visión, “la construcción de la relación de las distintas marcas con los consumidores cambió drásticamente. Hasta hace poco, se creaba en un formato de vínculo con la televisión y la compra de producto, pero hoy la lealtad a la marca es diferente”.

Avanza el digital
Al analizar la composición de la torta publicitaria “inflacionada”, la TV continúa llevándose el mayor porcentaje.
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Sin embargo, se advierte un corrimiento constante hacia el segmento online, que ya estaría representando el 30{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} de la inversión anual del mercado, de acuerdo con los números que manejan las fuentes consultadas.

“La televisión sigue dominando, el diario cae, la radio se mantiene -tanto en AM como en FM- aunque con un avance importante en aquellas que, además de la antena, cuentan con distribución online”, sostuvo Pérez, de la CCA.

“El comportamiento que se advierte en Argentina es similar al que se está dando en el mundo, aunque acá todavía la TV resiste mucho”, completó.

Para este ejecutivo, los anunciantes ya no deberían poner su dinero en un lugar “donde la audiencia se está reduciendo”.

Pérez sostuvo que las empresas de consumo masivo son las que más se vuelcan al formato televisivo, que todavía continúa siendo un canal muy importante para categorías como celulares, créditos hipotecarios y autos.

No obstante, el fenómeno del comercio electrónico también experimenta un avance constante y muchas empresas deciden apostar directamente a lo digital.

Parte de la complejidad por la que hoy atraviesa el mercado se debe a que, frente a un presupuesto publicitario que casi no crece, las empresas deben repartirlo entre muchos más soportes.

“El porcentaje depende de cada categoría. Hace 20 años, el 70{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} de la inversión se destinaba a la TV y el resto a la radio y gráfica. Ahora debe contemplarse lo digital en sus diversas formas”, consideró Yunes, de la AAP.

“El segmento online tiene una participación cercana al 30{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831}. Los medios se digitalizan cada vez más y apuntan a una estructura multiplataforma”, subrayó Pablo Iesulauro, de la Cámara Argentina de Agencia de Medios y CEO de Mindshare.

Para el presidente de la CAA, hay marcas que para posicionarse eligen primero a la TV pero luego se vuelcan de manera decidida a lo digital.

Además, precisó que las decisiones varían según el objetivo: si se busca masividad, se acude a la televisión. Pero cuando se trata de productos más orientados a un determinado target, crece el online en la decisión de compra.

Con una mirada más apocalíptica, Gennari, de BB, consideró que ya no es posible seguir concibiendo a la publicidad y al marketing de igual modo a los últimos 70 años.

“El cambio pasa por los algoritmos y la compra programática, lo que lleva a un nivel de mayor sofisticación en la inversión. Las empresas digitales tienen tal caudal de información que no va a pasar mucho tiempo para que detecten dónde están los consumidores y los busquen para ofrecerles algo”, anticipó.

Lo que viene
El mercado publicitario transita un camino de cambios profundos y permanentes, en el que los formatos digitales van ganando protagonismo.

“La publicidad crece al ritmo de la economía. Si esta última se contrae, la primera permanece estable un tiempo pero luego decrece. El proceso se da en sentido contrario cuando se reactiva”, expresó Yunes, presidente de la AAP y CEO de Geometry Global Latina.

“La perspectiva hacia adelante es positiva. La industria publicitaria y la creatividad se llevan bien con las economías expansivas y estables”, completó.

En igual sentido se expresó Iesulauro, al decir que esta rama de actividad va a poder pegar un salto en la medida en que el panorama económico se acomode y los medios de comunicación mejoren su estructura de costos.

Otra variable clave para este rubro es el consumo. Por ahora, los números indican que el (consumo) de tipo masivo podría crecer 1,5{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831} hacia finales de año, según las proyecciones más optimistas.

En las Jornadas de Supermercadismo de ASU, Osvaldo del Río, director de Scentia, anticipó que este año terminará en cero, lo que viene a ser una buena noticia, ya que 2016 cerró con una caída superior al 4{cd902a06da0f6d04db9f725c99e9ab5b7c6d76c3400c63aa3215824a9d4e5831}, según consultoras privadas.

Si la publicidad retoma el crecimiento en términos reales, los medios de comunicación, en cualquiera de sus formas, comenzarán a respirar con más calma.

La publicidad privada siempre ha sido el sustento básico de cualquier medio. Si éstos están en crisis, es por el cambio a lo digital y las fuentes de ingreso, incluida la pauta oficial.

“La publicidad oficial y la privada tienen dos comportamientos distintos. La primera apunta a fomentar la libertad de expresión y la diversidad de medios. La segunda busca audiencias y alcance”, indicó Yunes.

“La existencia de los medios y la libertad de expresión se sustentan en los ingresos publicitarios. Para tener una industria sana y fuerte, hace falta publicidad. Esto implica generar un sector creativo y de valor agregado”, enfatizó Yunes.

Para Gennari, los medios necesitan audiencias. Si no hay público, tampoco habrá anunciantes.

“Si los medios no son capaces de sustentarse con sus propios contenidos, irán a la muerte. Aquellos basados en la publicidad tal como la conocimos, ya no van más”, concluyó Gennari.

 

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